Hurricane Felix Forecast

Emily?

Happy Friday to all!! The vanguard of the 2011 hurricane season has passed with the first 3 named storms in the books and TS Don winding his way towards the Northern Mexican/South Texas border. Don's time to reach minimal hurricane status is almost over and, due to it's small stature, may not bring as much needed rain as many would want but in any case, a little is better than the big "0" they have been getting! Our probable 5th named storm is still several days away from the Leeward and Windward Islands. This would be Emily. Currently just an Invest (91), this system is expected to intensify over the next few days and could even become the first hurricane of the season by Tuesday depending on several factors which include lessening wind shear, warmer sea surface temperatures, and a moister air environment. As it is a large wave with already lowering pressures, the potential here is enormous down the road. If you haven't prepared by now, I suggest you might think about it seriously. Current track and intensity suggest a medium strength TS in 24-36 hours and a minimal hurricane in 48-60 hours trekking just south of Guadaloupe as it heads NE. As this system is not organized yet, this forecast is definitely not totally reliable but it still gives us an idea of what could lie ahead. I think it's a rather bullish forecast at the moment but gradual development, not rapid, is almost certain. This wave gives off bad vibes. There have been only 2 Cat 5 storms before the middle of August; Emily in 2005 and Allen in 1980. Then we have memories of Dean and Felix, 2 Cat 5's that trekked through the southern and middle Caribbean Islands both in 2007 and just weeks apart.

MT Utility World: Hurricane Felix Forecast / Advisory #14

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

In another analysis using both extra data sets, the track improvement was similar to the GOES-8 winds only forecast, and the intensity of Hurricane Felix ...

Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications

This modification resulted in a reduction of the 12-h forecast errors verified by radiosonde data. Differences in the prediction of Hurricane Felix with and ...

Floods, physical processes and human impacts

... observed off the Bermudan coast during the approach of Hurricane Felix in 1995. ... can now sometimes be forecast with operationally useful lead times. ...

Atmospheric and oceanic mesoscale processes

Figure 2 displays the wave-mean interactions for kinetic energy exchanges during a 72-hour forecast of the genesis stage of Hurricane Felix of 2002. ...

Virginia review

Tense moments as the Northampton County team hunkers down in their EOC to hear Wakefield NWS forecast for Hurricane Felix in 1995. ...